( Part 2 )
The Islamic Republic had adopted a special model for the transfor of capital to some countries to challenge and reduce the catastrophic risks of sanctions, and planned investment abroad with a non-Iranian identity but as an integral part of the organized cycle of Iranian capitalism, and established numerous manufacturing, commercial, service and financial companies in countries such as Turkey, the UAE and Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Tajikistan and Afghanistan, Pakistan and India and Lebanon, and some Latin American countries. Companies whose owners had a native identity, they traded with the global market but they were an integral part of the Iranian capitalist organizing cycle and with the planned and calculated solutions provided the need for the reproduction of this cycle. This template responded in an emergency but it had heavy costs and it increased the cost of domestic commodities again and was one of the important factors of continuous eruption of prices.
The devastating problems facing the Islamic Republic were not limited to sanctions and their devastating effects. For many years, the regime with maximum capacity had no choice but to strike back the waves of the bourgeoisie of Al-Saud, Al-Nahyan, Al-Sabah, Al-Thani and Al-Khalifa and other similar chains of capitalists, that with very cautious, and step by step, fearly pursued the Islamic Republic´s strategy of influence, expansionism and dominationism, that each of them in proportion and for a certain period of times, found themselves seriously besieged. This fear that the Islamic regime within the realm of their own governance and power structure would turn into a growing power of opposition, for each of them became like an integral part of the process of challenge, planning and solutions, avoidance of risk, coalition, breakup or search for a new ally and rift from the former ally. Only Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were not overwhelmed by this fear, all the regime´s allied governments in the region also heard the siren and started to challenge it. In Iraq, forces such as the “Supreme Assembly”, a part of the “Dawa Party”, “Jeishell Mahdi” which firstly , they had the largest share in the machine of state power of the day, secondly, they had the closest political, ideological and strategic alliance relationship with the Revolutionary Guards or the regime as a whole, and all of them , one by one started tearing the links of relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The reason for the rupture was clear, they wanted get to power by relying on the full support from this regime and taking advantage of the regime´s rich economic and military reserves, and what they didn´t like at all and didn´t think about it and ran away from it was that the relations between them would lead to the regime´s extremist participation in the economy and the rule of the Iraq. Such a thing was a nightmare for them, a nightmare that was now swallowing their existence with domination and violence. Among this section of the Iraqi bourgeoisie, not only separated themselves and their way from the Islamic regime but also turned to their former opponents to get rid of the Islamic regime too. The lucky star of the Islamic Republic´s intervention, domination and share was declining in every where, across West and Central Asia. A regime that established its work on some crisis-creating, fascist organizing of the most petrified layers of the rebellious masses and had based its demand for a share in the power structure of this or that country, it saw now the effects of returning of the wave of excessive ambition in various forms, more wider and striking being overwhelmed on itself. Under the destructive pressure of sanctions and the storming of the economic crisis, wasn´t able longer to support Hezbollah, Hashd-al-Shaabi, and Faati-mion or the mass of self-made Jihadist forces as before. The regime had spent over 150 billion dollars in Syria and now all its military infrastructures there, near the Golan Heights, was the target of Israeli air and ground bombardments. Assad regime due to the galactic surplus values resulting from the exploitation of the Iranian working class and spending it by the Islamic Republic had saved his regime from the danger of a certain fall in a brutal seven-year´s war in Syria, and now saw the continued presence of the partner (the Islamic Republic ) in Syria such as a new danger which replaced the previous risks. Assad regime saw this presence as a reason for the Israeli state´s growing aggression and invasion on Syria and enduring the begotten devastation of these attacks. With a dumb language was shouting on the Revolutionary Guards and the ruler Islamic fascism of capital in Iran that the time of needs and request for help had come to an end and was time for goodbye and return.
In the maze of situations that arose from these collisions and intimidations, crisis creation, crisis avoidance, aggressions and invasions, retreats, ruptures and join togethers, the Israeli government achieved the opportunity of victory at no cost. Every step that the Islamic Republic took everywhere, it was becoming full of booty and benefitis that was completely reaped by the Israeli regime. All the governments of the region that for many years in fear of the public opinion of the Arab working masses, at least at the official and public level, they didn´t dare to establish close ties with the Israeli bourgeoisie, now with peace of mind threw themselves into Netanyahu´s and other butchers´ arms. The ally pole of the Arab governments and the Gulf margin vs. the Islamic regime that the Israeli rulers were proud of to lead the leadership of them. A new line-up that, while not new in its current composition and credibility, marked a new chapter in US middle east strategy in the context of current events and drastic changes in the regional arrangement of forces. For the first time in decades, the American bourgeoisie felt that it didn´t need an active and costly political and military security presence in the Gulf, at least not in the old way. The US statesmen who, with the collapse of the former Soviet Union, saw themselves relieved of the exorbitant costs of facing a strong rival blockade, but it found the shadow of crisis-making and expansionism of the Islamic fascism on itself, and now the second danger was widely ruled out and being eliminted. If 10 years ago the Obama administration, out of desperation and behind a strategic stalemate, set the tone for the exit from the region, now, on the contrary, Trump and Biden couldn´t have failed and desperate, but could very forcefully and confidently leave their role to partners.
The regime´s bells of hope from all sides were replaced with sirens of defeat and despair. There were regimes in the Middle East and Central Asia that were not as much allies of the Islamic Republic as Assad´s government and nouri al-Maliki or the Lebanese coalition government, but as far as the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Bahrain were not hostile, Turkey and Pakistan and Azerbaijan and some other countries were like this. Among these, Turkey always strived to be a successful reaper of the current disputes in the region and a victorious beneficiary of the course of events, and in this regard, for a long time, some support for the Iranian regime was used to win points from rivals such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Europe and even Israel. By changing the balance of power within the region, these countries, in particular the Erdogan government, also saw their interest in more or less changing the orientation, and facilitated and strengthened the level of his government´s relationship with Israel, and strengthened its connection and expanded alliance with Azerbaijan too. With this action, the Turkish government, as far as it could, empowered Ilhan Aliyev´s government, and became the sure encouragement and support of this government´s attack on Armenia, and made the victory of the ruling bourgeoisie of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war the platform of its richer power. The joint maneuver with Azerbaijan and Pakistan added it to the chain of these efforts. With the help of all these actions, and put the Islamic Republic in a more desperate position than before, a situation that is depressing and broken in all aspects, that instead of asking for a share, was ready to pay compensation and endure retreat. Contrary to many people´s beliefs, as far as the disputes between Azerbaijan and Iran are concerned, the problem of the Islamic regime isn´t the single payment of 130 dollars tolls for each truck on the Goris-Qapan strategic and transit road. Efforts to reduce Iran´s share of the Caspian Sea Charter, disrupt the relation based on transit between Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Europe, determination to establish a corrider of communication with Nakhchivan through Armenia and complete blockade of the security and intelligence arteries of the Islamic regime in the Caucasus region, increasing and planned strengthening of military, political, economic, strategic and intelligence ties with the Israeli regime, equip its army and defense system with modern Israeli weapons, calculated planning and deliberate preparation to remove Iran from the transit route of China – Europe, the rejection of the Islamic Republic from the route of energy transfer and the possibility of exporting gas to Europe, disposal of Chah-e-Bahar transportation lines to West Azerbaijan, each of which could be a severe blow to the organizability of capitalism in Iran. All of these are problematic and frightening for the Islamic Republiic. The important point is that although the Azerbaijani government has an important role in designing and implementing these policies, but everything that has been done in this direction or is about to be done so according to point by point, it´s the result of joint and homogeneous plans of this government with the ruling bourgeoisie of Turkey. It should be noted here that the Islamic Republic is consciouslym eloquently and , as usual, deeply deceitful in trying to downplay Turkey´s tole in the version of the scenario and instead highlight the role of the predatory state of Israel. A familiar demagoguery believed by much of the regimne´s right and left-wing opposition that have made the top and bottom of their common analyzes by that. Israel is certainly at the forefront of these conflicts and is benefiting the most from their severity. There´s no doubt about this, but the current conflict between the bourgeoisie of three countries of Iran-Turkey-Azerbaijan has been and is a secret strategic conflict. A deep and decisive conflict that will become more and more turbulent and belligerent day by day. The basis of the dispute is certainly economic, but for this reason it´s the driving force behind the fiercest competition for the rise and fall of roles in the distribution of profit shares, political power and ownership, sovereignty and exercise of will, radius of domination and weight of regional and international influence. Elsewhere, on the transit route from Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, Turkey has disabled and grounded the Islamic Republic, despite the Islamic regime´s fortifications in those countries, and prevented this regime from achieving its goals. The Erdogan government, determined and planned to consolidate its power base and position in the region, and has engaged in activities, coalitions, alignments and has achieved great success in this regard. It´s worth pondering that in the area of the dispute in question, the existence of Israel is used the most. Contrary to the perception of many opposition forces, it´s not israel that is breaking and neutralizing its siege by the Islamic Republic by tightening the siege of Iran as much as possible, Israel, as stated, benefits from this situation, but the leadership of the planning and prescriptions is in the hands of the Erdogan government with sharing obvious interests of the Azerbaijani bourgeoisie. Over the years, Turkey has expanded its sphere of influence to Turkmenistan, and it has established the strongest relations with two countries with huge oil resources in the east and west of the Caspian Sea. It has taken advantage of NATO membership, tight relations with Qatar, conditional relations with Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere for the most lucrative economic, political, diplomatic and strategic trade. In recent years, the value-added cycle of Iranian capitalism has become more and more paralyzed under the pressure of the crisis and the explosive intensification of sanctions, Turkey relatively, in the context of strictnesses caused by the eruption of the global crisis of capital, it has prevented the investment of capital from falling, and sometimes it has prospered it and in this regard has increased its share of international surplus values. On top of these achievements, the Turkish bourgeoisie now finds itself in a situation where it has to ponying with the bourgeoisie and the Islamic regime of Iran, adopt policies that are the dominant power in the region and receive all the shares of profit and power resulting from this domination. Having a role in Afghanistan, joint maneuver with Azerbaijan and Pakistan, efforts to improve relations with the UAE, and all of these are done and will be done in this direction. All these ups and downs, shifts and changes are a clear indication of the burnouts, depressions, failures and regression of the Islamic regime over the last decade.
So far, whatever we´ve said about the sinking of the power ship, requesting share, crisis creation by the Islamic Republic in the region and rest of the world, and the increasing pressure of crisis storms which is hitting this sinking ship of the Islamic regime and the terrible dangers of debris on the regime. This is a long story. in a situation where the Revolutionary Guards, Khamenei, the whole structure of power hysterically speaks of “tendency to the east” , both China and Russia are much less willing and in need of alignment with the regime than ever before. China as a dominant pole of global capitalism, the basis of all its relations with the Islamic Republic is built on sharing as much as possible in the surplus values obtained from the exploitation of the working masses of Iran. Direct investment in the most lucrative realms of domestic accumulation, using the natural mechanism of the capitalism and its strategies to transfer a portion of the surplus labor of the Iranian working class to the realm of reproduction of Chinnese capital in the dynamic process of trade, purchase sheap oil and gas or the type of these exchanges are different ways of this sharing. Chinese capitalism to achieve these goals, first of all, it needs to get the Iranian capitalist value-added cycle out of the quagmire of crisis and the pressure of sanctions. In a situation where the total capital and the social relation of capital in the country is falling into the crisis more rapidly than ever before, and the sanctions multiply crisis power and double costs of trade with Iran, and china also doen´t see a pleasant outlook on these exchanges, the issue becomes much more complex and sensitive when we take a look at the volume of its (China) with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, Turkey and the Islamic Republic´s rivals in the reion. Addording to reports in various media outlets, includinng the Tasnim newspaper which belongs to the Revolutionary Guards, which is a staunch advocate of consolidating strategic relations with China that the total volume of the Islamic regime´s trade with China in the first nine months of the current year, with a decrease of about 39% compared to last year, amounted to 11 billion dollars, meanwhile, the UAE´s annual trade with China exceeds 100 billion dollars, according to official reports. The same sources say that the annual trade balance of Saudi Arabia with China is about 17 billion dollars and Israel with China is 13 billion dollars. Qatar is China´s second largest LNG gas supplier, and economic ties and relations between the two countries are steadily growing. If we put these numbers together, the total value of Iran – China economic exchanges is even lower than that of the Islamic Republic´s regional rivals, so much lower that the Chinese government would be ready to side with the regime in the midst of international conflicts, what China hasn´t done in the past too. The story of the relationship between the regime and the Putin administration is even more empty and shaky. Russia has for a long time enjoyed a solid and satisfactory position in the Middle East and Central Asia. It has close relations with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, in OPEC Plus, as a very important and decisive member of this protocol, it has practically played a strong and dominant role in most of OPEC decisions, and here it has achieved significant interests with the Saudi rulers. A partnership that alonely is enough to determine the position of the Putin administration in the area of regional disputes between the Islamic Republic and the rivals. But this is just a little part of the whole story. The Russian ruling bourgeoisie has always and also today, more than ever, been allied with Israel, and its relations with Turky is stronger than ever, and it needs the bond to be stronger than ever. If in the Syrian war it needed to use the Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah and a large number of organized forces of the Islamic regime , as sacrificed infantry, but now it´s for a long time, it doesn´t need it anymore, and beyond that it calls for the Islamic regime to leave Syria. Over the past few decades, Russia has seen part of the Islamic Republic´s Middle East records as the need to further improve its own position in the region and globally. As the dimensions of this need has diminished, Russia finds it more unnecessary to stand by the Islamic regime anymore. Perhaps events such as the acceptance of the Islamic Republic in the “Shanghai” agreement or more importantly, the signing of a 25-year strategic agreement between Iran – China, with whatever here was said about the relationship between the Islamic regime and governments of Russia and China, would seem contrary, but in reality isn´t . None of these agreement (Shanghai and a 25-year agreement between Iran – China ) accessiblely have no achievements for the Iranian Islamic regime. It´s the Islamic Republic that has hung itself from these relations out of desperation. This kind of involvement from a disgustable and desperate positionary that can be seen in the recent contract with China for constractioning of 4000 housing units. The regime that until before this was proud of the implementation of the most housing projects in Latin America, right now, under the pressure of the competitive economy !! and from the depths of the collapsed cycle of capital reproduction, invites Chinese companies to solve the housing problem in Iran !!!
It´s been said above that the chain of failures, retreats and crisis plaguing the regime in these days is longer and more unbreakable than ever. All that was listed has put its acute and destructive reflection on the so-called “joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or Nuclear Deal scenario. The iranian nuclear issue has been born from the beginning unsolved. Unresolved in the sense that the “nuclear” dispute over the only thing that isn´t at all is the nuclear problem, and any amount of opening in it is the only action that is basically not a task, change and transformation within the nuclear project. We´ve said before that the foundation of the conflict is over the disruption, that the regime´s strategy of share-seeking is created in the American and its global partners´prescription for global order. As long as this strategy continues, Iran´s nuclear scenario will be open and stormy too. the point of this article is the story of the failure of this strategy, but the Islamic Republic refuses to accept this failure. Accordingly, the (Nuclear Deal) is in the darkest, most crumbling and failed moment of its existence. The Islamic Republic has no prospect of continuing the nuclear negotiation, because this time the negotiation is just like a rope that the regime is tieing around its neck. For the regime there´s no card left to put on the table and will be unable to get any score. From top to bottom of the formations is testifying the worn-out, dispicable and bankrupt status and position of the Islamic regime, and the formation of rivalry is stronger than ever. Israel has infiltrated the regime´s nuclear, missile and security centers, and Mossad computers are full of information about the regime´s facilities and activities within these centers. This time it´s Israel that has taken on the role of savior of the “oppressed” in the region from the danger of “oppressor”, and has become the axis of new blockades in region, and it has lined up Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman to sign a convenant, and in Azerbaijan caused Ilham Aliyev to take proudly pictures with Israeli weapons. The opposite of that is true about the Islamic Republic. Even the governments of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, despite receiving the most exorbitant ransom subsidies, are counting down the moment to get rid of the consequences of the Islamic Republic´s evils and crisis-creating. In such circumstances, “Nuclear Deal” is merely a negotiation table to force the regime to retreat the most grossly and heaviest compensation for the lowest and most dispicable achievements. Reducing the pressure of sanctions is the only privilege the Islamic regime can rely on, but this reduction of pressure will be much more caricature and deceptive than real and decisive. Following all these events, the Islamic Republic isn´t in a position to insist on taking concessions or arbitrary lifting of sanctions in the context of 2015 . Quite the contrary, the limits of the demands will be determined not by the Islamic regime but by the rivals. This time, the bourgeois Islamic fascism doesn´t face only the United States, Europe, China and Russia, or the 5+1 in possible negotiation, but also practically and informally, it´s under pressure from the expectations and demands of israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and each of the countries in the region. China and Russia will look to the satisfaction of the opposing and hostile front much more than to defend the Iranian and Islamic rullers of capital in Iran. If the Islamic regime finds itself trapped in pure indecision uncertainty, if it isn´t willing to set a date for negotiation, if hysterically it makes contradictory statements every day, all of these come from here. A regime that wanted to force all rivals in the region and world to relinquish power and sovereignty through a strategy based on creating crisis, organizing fascism and extorting, now the atonement regime itself pays its strategy in the form of the most terrible tributes and ransoms to all rivals.
be continued ….
